Weather forecasting error in solar energy forecasting

Model error in weather forecasting

Operational forecasting is hampered both by the rapid divergence of nearby initial conditions and by error in the underlying model. Interest in chaos has fuelled much work on the first of these two issues; this paper focuses on the second. A new approach to quantifying state-dependent model error, the local model drift, is derived and deployed both in examples and in operational numerical weath...

Model error in weather and climate forecasting

We review various interpretations of the phrase “model error”, choosing to focus here on how to quantify and minimise the cumulative effect of model “imperfections” that either have not been eliminated because of incomplete observations/understanding or cannot be eliminated because they are intrinsic to the model’s structure. We will not provide a recipe for eliminating these imperfections, but...

Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment

Chapter Outline 8.1. Classification of SolarForecasting Methods 172 8.2. Deterministic and Stochastic Forecasting Approaches 177 8.2.1. A Critical Appraisal of Physically-Based Forecasting Approaches 177 8.2.2. Satellite Forecasts 178 8.2.3. Sky-Imager Forecasts 179 8.2.4. Data Inputs to Stochastic-Learning Approaches 179 8.2.5. Section Summary 181 8.3. Metrics for Evaluation of Solar-Forecasti...

Long-range Weather Forecasting

Forecasting Space Weather

Forecasting space weather events presents the ultimate challenge to a space physics model. Not only should physical constraints be satisfied, but also practical issues such as timeliness, accuracy, and reliability must be adequately addressed. To address these needs, modern space weather forecasters and users rely on a great variety of space weather models, ranging from simple regressions and e...